Inside Innventure's Hidden Asset
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Thesis Status Snapshot
Accelsius CF+ (Q4 2026)
TARGET
Q1 2026 Bookings $50M+
CONFIRMED
JCI/Legrand Acq. Interest
UNVERIFIED
Parent Burn Drop 2025→2026
IN PROGRESS
CoolIT Comp Validates 15x
VALIDATED
My Conviction Level
Accelsius Technology
HIGH
Revenue Ramp to $300M
MEDIUM
M&A Materialisation
MEDIUM
CF+ Q4 2026 Timing
MED-HIGH
Critical Milestones
Q1 2026 EARNINGS
Bookings confirmation $50M+ & burn rate trajectory
H1 2026
AeroFlexx capital raise — 3rd party valuation
Q3–Q4 2026
H2 revenue acceleration confirms FY range
Q4 2026 ← PRIMARY
Accelsius CF+ announcement — re-rating trigger
JAN–MAR 2027
Warrant exercise above $11.50 → $211M cash
Q2–Q3 2027
M&A process window opens (base case)
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Innventure — The Hidden Asset
Accelsius and the Case for a Capital Structure Inflection. ~$559M market cap (84M shares × $6.65) vs. a 42% stake that may be worth multiples of that alone.
01Core Thesis
The Central Idea
At the May 23, 2026 price of $6.65/share, Innventure's ~$559M market cap (84.04M shares × $6.65) appears to give little or no credit to its 42% stake in Accelsius Holdings — a two-phase liquid cooling company with $50M+ Q1 2026 bookings, NVIDIA Inception membership, and reported acquisition interest from JCI and Legrand at a $660M entry valuation.
A structural shift is underway: parent-level cash burn is expected to drop from $60–90M in 2025 to $20–25M in 2026 as operating companies begin raising capital directly. The narrative shifts from 'cash-burn incubator' to 'self-funding platform.'
A structural shift is underway: parent-level cash burn is expected to drop from $60–90M in 2025 to $20–25M in 2026 as operating companies begin raising capital directly. The narrative shifts from 'cash-burn incubator' to 'self-funding platform.'
What Is Well-Supported
✓ Capital structure analysis grounded in S-3 filing
✓ JCI & Legrand invested at $660M — public fact
✓ Two-phase cooling market tailwind is structural
✓ Q1 2026 bookings implying $200M+ annualized run rate
✓ Ecolab/CoolIT comp validates 15x base multiple
✓ NVIDIA Vera Rubin compatibility — hardware spec match
✓ JCI & Legrand invested at $660M — public fact
✓ Two-phase cooling market tailwind is structural
✓ Q1 2026 bookings implying $200M+ annualized run rate
✓ Ecolab/CoolIT comp validates 15x base multiple
✓ NVIDIA Vera Rubin compatibility — hardware spec match
Requires Independent Verification
⚠ JCI/Legrand acquisition interest — shareholder conversations only
⚠ $300M 2027 revenue — no bottoms-up model
⚠ Accelsius "only market-ready two-phase" claim
⚠ AeroFlexx & Refinity valuations — illustrative placeholders
⚠ CF+ Q4 2026 — target, not guarantee
⚠ $300M 2027 revenue — no bottoms-up model
⚠ Accelsius "only market-ready two-phase" claim
⚠ AeroFlexx & Refinity valuations — illustrative placeholders
⚠ CF+ Q4 2026 — target, not guarantee
📝 Thesis NotesSaved ✓
02Key Catalysts
1
Accelsius CF+ — Target Q4 2026 Critical
Q1 2026 bookings implying $200M+ annualized run rate + DarkNx 300MW deal. CF+ would break the 'failed SPAC' narrative and trigger institutional re-evaluation. Target, not guarantee.
2
Strategic Acquisition — JCI & Legrand Unverified
Based on shareholder conversations, both are believed to have strong acquisition interest. Not publicly confirmed. Management has reportedly rebuffed early approaches pending higher valuation at CF+ and $300M+ revenue.
3
Fortune 500 Validation at $660M Public Fact
JCI and Legrand invested at $660M. Both actively distributing Accelsius products globally and believed to hold first right of refusal on any acquisition.
4
NeuCool® IR150 — NVIDIA-Compatible Verified
Up to 150kW/rack, warm-water to 45°C — matching NVIDIA Vera Rubin specification exactly. NVIDIA Inception Program member. Engineers from AWS, Meta, Celestica, Supermicro engaged at launch.
5
$211M Warrant Exercise Contingent on $11.50
18.3M Innventure Warrants exercisable at $11.50/share. Contingent financing event — raises cash through dilution at higher price. Would materially improve balance sheet and remove going concern overhang.
📌 Catalyst UpdatesSaved ✓
03Accelsius Deep Dive
The Cooling Evolution — Why Two-Phase Is Necessary
Air cooling → Single-phase liquid → Two-phase liquid. Physics-driven progression. At 300kW+ per rack (NVIDIA Vera Rubin and beyond), two-phase is the only viable engineering solution. Accelsius exploits latent heat of vaporization for dramatically more efficient heat removal. The IR150's rack-level self-contained architecture opens retrofit markets (not just greenfield) — expanding addressable opportunity to the existing installed base.
| Cooling Method | Rack Density | Status | Key Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Air Cooling | Up to ~20–30 kW/rack | Legacy | Poor heat transfer — impractical above 30kW |
| Single-Phase Liquid | 30–100+ kW/rack | Current | Scaling penalties at high heat flux |
| Two-Phase Liquid | 100–600+ kW/rack | Emerging ★ | Higher complexity — Accelsius solving with IR150 |
| Future GPU Requirement | 300–600+ kW/rack | NVIDIA Vera Rubin | Only two-phase can practically handle |
NeuCool® IR150
Up to 150 kW/rack
800mm wide, 42U, plug-and-play. Single-rack failure domain. Warm-water to 45°C. Factory-tested CDU.
800mm wide, 42U, plug-and-play. Single-rack failure domain. Warm-water to 45°C. Factory-tested CDU.
NeuCool® MR250
250 kW+ per rack
Row-based system for higher density. Future-proofs for post-Vera Rubin GPU generations.
Row-based system for higher density. Future-proofs for post-Vera Rubin GPU generations.
NeuCool® TSR
Testing & Simulation
Customer qualification and deployment planning tool. Lowers adoption friction.
Customer qualification and deployment planning tool. Lowers adoption friction.
| Advantage | vs. Air | vs. Single-Phase | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cooling Energy | Up to 90% reduction | 35–44% OpEx/yr | Reduces data center PUE & operating costs |
| Water Usage | — | Water-free | No treatment, no corrosion — critical in water-scarce regions |
| TCO (5-year) | Significant reduction | 8–17% savings | Quantifiable ROI accelerates purchasing decisions |
| Temp. Tolerance | Better | Warm-water to 45°C | Enables free-cooling & NVIDIA Vera Rubin compatibility |
| Safety / Leak | — | Dielectric — non-conductive | Server damage from leaks eliminated |
🔬 Accelsius Research NotesSaved ✓
What Is Accelsius Worth?
Revenue-based exit valuation anchored by the live Ecolab/CoolIT comp at 15–17x on $300M+ revenue. Two-phase premium could push higher.
01Exit Valuation Table
The Definitive Comp — Ecolab / CoolIT
Ecolab nearing deal to acquire CoolIT Systems from KKR for $4.5B–$5.0B. CoolIT revenue exceeding $300M — the same as Accelsius's 2027 target — implying 15–17x for single-phase technology. Accelsius provides superior two-phase with NVIDIA Inception membership. Our 15x base case is directly validated by a live transaction at the same revenue scale. Also: Eaton paid $9.5B for Boyd — premium strategic multiple in same market.
| Exit Valuation | Revenue | Multiple | INV 42% Proceeds | Per Share (110M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3.0B | $300M | 10x | $1.26B | $11.45 |
| $4.5B | $300M | 15x — CoolIT low | $1.89B | $17.18 |
| $5.0B | $300M | 17x — CoolIT high | $2.10B | $19.09 ★ |
| $6.0B | $400M | 15x | $2.52B | $22.91 |
| $6.8B | $400M | 17x | $2.86B | $26.00 |
| $7.5B | $400M | 19x | $3.15B | $28.64 |
| $10.0B | $500M | 20x | $4.20B | $38.18 |
02Scenario Analysis
Bear Case ~25%
CF+ TimingSlips to mid-2027
FY2026 Revenue$45–65M
FY2027 Revenue$120–180M
Exit Multiple8–10x
Exit Valuation$1.0B–$1.8B
INV 42% Proceeds$420M–$756M
$3.62–$6.58
Base Case ~45%
CF+ TimingQ4 2026
FY2026 Revenue$70–100M
FY2027 Revenue$250–300M
Exit Multiple15–17x (CoolIT)
Exit Valuation$4.5B–$5.0B
INV 42% Proceeds$1.89B–$2.10B
$19.00–$21.00
Bull Case ~30%
CF+ TimingQ3 2026 — early
FY2026 Revenue$90–120M
FY2027 Revenue$300–400M+
Exit Multiple17–20x+ (tech prem.)
Exit Valuation$5.0B–$7.5B+
INV 42% Proceeds$2.10B–$3.15B
$21.00–$30.45
Probability-Weighted Estimate
~$15.00 – $21.00 / share
vs. $6.65 current → base case upside +201%
03Sum-of-the-Parts
| Asset | INV Ownership | Bear | Base | Bull | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accelsius | 42.0% | $1.26B | $1.68B | $2.10B | $3B–$5B exit |
| AeroFlexx | 37.1% | $100M | $300M | $500M | 37.1% of $270M–$1.35B |
| Refinity | 68.4% | $50M | $150M | $300M | Dow partnership; early stage |
| Warrant Proceeds | N/A | $0 | $211M | $211M | 18.3M @ $11.50 |
| Net Cash/Debt | N/A | -$20M | -$20M | -$20M | WTI net of cash |
| TOTAL VALUE | — | $1.39B | $2.32B | $3.09B | 110M shares est. |
| PER SHARE | — | $12.64 | $21.09 | $28.09 | vs. $6.65 (May 23, 2026) |
Base Case Value Composition
Accelsius
$1.68B (72%)
AeroFlexx
$300M (13%)
Refinity
$150M (6%)
Warrants
$211M (9%)
💡 Valuation NotesSaved ✓
The Inflection Point
Parent burn collapsing 65–75% as subsidiaries self-fund. The 'cash-burn incubator' narrative is breaking.
01Before vs. After
2025 — Historical
Parent burn: $60–90M
Innventure funds all subsidiaries
High SEPA dependency → dilution risk
'Cash-burn incubator'
Innventure funds all subsidiaries
High SEPA dependency → dilution risk
'Cash-burn incubator'
2026+ — Inflection
Parent burn: $20–25M (↓65–75%)
Subsidiaries raise capital directly
SEPA dependency → LOW/NONE
'Self-funding platform'
Subsidiaries raise capital directly
SEPA dependency → LOW/NONE
'Self-funding platform'
| Instrument | Max Shares | Exercise Price | Timeline | Cash to INV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding (May 2026) | ~84,040,000 | N/A | Today | N/A |
| 2024 WTI Warrants | 3,333,334 | ~$6.65 (current price) | Through Mar 2035 | ~$13M |
| 2025 WTI Warrants | 1,000,000 | Market VWAP at issuance | Through Mar 2035 | ~$3M |
| Series A Warrants (PIPE) | 1,625,235 | $8.00 per share | Apr 2026 – Oct 2030 | ~$13M |
| Series B Preferred | 3,260,175 | $5.00–$12.50 range | Through Oct 2029 | $0 |
| Series C Preferred | 8,480,518 | $5.00–$12.50 range | Through Mar 2030 | $0 |
| SEPA — Yorkville | ~14,971,175 | Market (5% disc.) | Through Nov 2027 | ~$66M |
| INV Warrants (SPAC) | 18,386,688 | $11.50 per share | Through Oct 2029 | ~$211M ✓ |
| TOTAL MAX ADDITIONAL | ~51M–59M | — | — | ~$306M |
The Acquisition Case
JCI vs. Legrand competitive dynamic — two Fortune 500 rivals, both invested, both with ROFR. This structure virtually guarantees a premium price.
01The Structural Case
Why This Acquisition Is Likely
JCI and Legrand both invested at $660M, both actively distributing Accelsius products, and both believed to hold first right of refusal. Management has reportedly rebuffed early approaches pending CF+ and $300M+ revenue. The JCI vs. Legrand dynamic virtually guarantees a competitive process — neither CFO will explain to their board why they let the other win dominant AI cooling technology. Innventure simply needs one outside bidder (Vertiv, NVIDIA, hyperscaler) to trigger a maximising sale process.
| Acquirer | Probability | Rationale | Estimated Bid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Johnson Controls Int'l | 40% | Already invested, HVAC/cooling core, scale to acquire | $3B–$5B |
| Legrand | 20% | Already invested, data center electrical, can't let JCI win | $3.5B–$5B |
| Vertiv Holdings | 15% | Data center thermal mgmt leader, direct competitive threat | $4B–$6B |
| Hyperscaler (MSFT/GOOG/AMZN) | 10% | Proprietary cooling advantage, massive balance sheets | $5B–$10B |
| NVIDIA | 5% | Full data center stack control ambition | $5B–$10B |
| IPO (standalone) | 10% | Alternative if no acquirer meets price expectations | Market-determined |
| Transaction | Acquirer | Target | Deal Value | Revenue Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eaton / Boyd | Eaton Corporation | Boyd Corporation (liquid cooling) | $9.5B | Premium strategic |
| KKR / Ecolab | Ecolab (nearing close) | CoolIT Systems (single-phase) | $4.5B–$5.0B | 15–17x (>$300M rev) |
| Accelsius (potential) | JCI or Legrand | Accelsius (two-phase) | TBD — $3B–$6B+ | 15–20x (our model) |
📡 M&A Channel Check UpdatesSaved ✓
What Could Go Wrong
A balanced assessment of execution risks, verification gaps, and structural concerns.
01Risk Matrix
| Risk Factor | Severity | Probability | Mitigant / Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accelsius misses CF+ Dec 2026 — timeline slips | HIGH | MED | Updated May 2026: Management reiterated CF+ exit Dec 2026 on Q1 call. CEO explicitly flagged supply chain delays as the primary external risk. Watch H2 deployment pace closely. |
| Supply chain disruption — CEO flagged Q1 2026 | HIGH | MED | NEW — May 2026: CEO Gregory Haskell cited supply chain challenges as the main variable outside management control that could delay the $100M revenue run rate target. Monitor closely. |
| Revenue ramp: analyst consensus $32.8M vs mgmt ~$100M run rate | HIGH | MED | Updated May 2026: Analyst FY2026 consensus of $32.8M sits far below management's implied ~$100M annualized run rate. Wide gap requires independent verification. $50M+ Q1 bookings confirmed but recognition lag is real. |
| Customer concentration — few large deals | HIGH | MED | DarkNx remains large % of modeled revenue. Q1 bookings $50M+ suggest pipeline broadening but customer names not yet disclosed. Concentration risk persists. |
| Qualification cycles longer than modeled | HIGH | MED | HyperStart program (Apr 20, 2026) designed to shorten validation cycles for hyperscalers — partially mitigating. Several hyperscale AI cloud providers already engaged. Bookings ≠ revenue still applies. |
| M&A interest not materialising — unverified | MED | MED | No public confirmation from JCI or Legrand as of May 2026. CF+ achievement remains the likely trigger for any formal process to begin. |
| Competitor two-phase solution reaches market | MED | MED | Improved May 2026: NeuCool IR150 now in general availability (Apr 20, 2026) — first-mover advantage strengthened. HyperStart engages hyperscalers pre-competitively. Risk reduced but not eliminated. |
| SEPA dilution — ongoing but disciplined | MED | LOW | Improved May 2026: Q1 SEPA used at >$6/share, limiting dilution to ~2%. Annualized dilution rate <10% at current prices. $54.9M remaining (May 8). Management expects minimal further capital needs near-term. |
| SPAC overhang permanently depresses stock | MED | LOW-MED | Improving: Stock up ~126% over 6 months as of May 2026. Commercial traction beginning to shift narrative. CF+ remains the definitive catalyst to break SPAC stigma institutionally. |
| Cash deterioration — forced distressed raise | MED | LOW | Materially improved: Cash $60.4M at Q1 end + $11.9M SEPA post-quarter ≈ $72M available. Going concern risk significantly reduced. Management does not anticipate near-term capital needs. |
| Investment Company Act reclassification | LOW | LOW | Flagged in S-3. Management aware. No update in Q1 2026 filings. |
⚠ Risk Updates & New ConcernsSaved ✓
02Milestone Tracker
✓ CONFIRMED — Q1 bookings $50M+ verified · Accelsius revenue $1.3M (+highest ever) · +600% YoY consolidated
May 14, 2026
DONE✓ CONFIRMED — NeuCool IR150 general availability announced Apr 20 at Data Center World · HyperStart program launched · hyperscalers engaged
Apr 20, 2026
DONE✓ CONFIRMED — G&A $12.7M (-35% YoY) · Adj. EBITDA loss $18.4M · lowest net loss since IPO · burn trajectory on track
Q1 2026
DONEAeroFlexx capital raise — pipeline expanded to $32M (+21% since Jan) · $13.2M in final negotiation · Aveda anchor win confirmed
H1–H2 2026
WATCHAccelsius H2 revenue acceleration — mgmt targets ~$100M annualized run rate by Dec 2026 · supply chain flagged as external risk by CEO
Q3–Q4 2026
HIGHAccelsius positive operating cash flow exit — reiterated for Dec 2026 · implies ~$100M annualized rev run rate · PRIMARY re-rating catalyst
Q4 2026
CRITICALINV Warrant exercise begins above $11.50 → $211M cash inflow
2027+
HIGH🗓 Milestone Status UpdatesSaved ✓
Ownership & Smart Money
Full institutional positions, insider transactions history, and unusual options activity. All sourced from SEC filings. Auto-refreshes every 15 min during market hours.
01Institutional Holders — 13F
Q1 2026 · 83 Buyers · 18 Sellers · Source: Quiver Quant / MarketBeat
| Institution | Type | Shares | Value | Qtr Δ | % Co. | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock, Inc. Q1 2026 | Asset Mgr | 3,104,183 | $5.23M | +75.7% | 3.69% | ▲▲ ADD |
| PNC Financial Services Aug 2025 | Bank | 3,074,330 | $14.76M | +937.6% | 3.66% | ▲▲ MAJOR |
| Driehaus Capital Mgmt Q4 2025 | Hedge Fund | 1,256,486 | $5.25M | NEW | 1.49% | ▲ NEW |
| Centerbook Partners LP Q1 2026 | Hedge Fund | 848,711 | $3.32M | NEW | 1.01% | ▲ NEW |
| Stifel Financial Corp Q4 2025 | Bank | 694,401 | $2.90M | NEW | 0.83% | ▲ NEW |
| Susquehanna Intl Group Q4 2025 | Mkt Maker | 692,936 | $2.90M | NEW | 0.82% | ▲ NEW |
| Abundance Wealth Counsel. Q3 2025 | RIA | 754,311 | $3.62M | NEW | 0.90% | ▲ NEW |
| FWG Holdings LLC Aug 2025 | Family Off. | 143,691 | $711K | +899.9% | 0.17% | ▲▲ ADD |
| Geode Capital Mgmt Aug 2025 | Index Fund | 312,201 | $1.50M | +60.1% | 0.37% | ▲ ADD |
| Yorkville Advisors Global Q1 2026 — SEPA exit | SEPA | 0 | $0 | -100% | 0% | ▼ EXIT* |
*Yorkville exit = SEPA facility wind-down, not investment conviction sell. Total inst. inflows (12M): $28.64M vs $38.9K outflows.
02Block Holders — 13D/G
≥5% Holders · SEC 13D/G · May 2026
| Holder | Shares | % | Status | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascent Capital Partners Support letter to board May 4 | 5,462,402 | 6.80% | SUPPORTIVE | May 5, 2026 |
| WE-INN LLC (Wasson) Founder-affiliated · sold ~2.4M shares Sep–Dec 2025 | 4,682,970 | 5.85% | INSIDER | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Commonwealth Asset Mgmt Activist 13D Feb 2026 · company issued public response | ~8.3M est. | ~9.9% | ACTIVIST | Feb 2026 |
03Director & Officer Ownership
Current Holdings per Director/Officer · Form 3/4 · May 2026
| Name | Role | Shares (Direct) | Indirect | Est. % | Last Activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Otworth | Exec. Chairman & Founder | 3,550,087 | — | ~4.22% | Apr 17, 2026 — received 154,829 milestone grant |
| Gregory W. Haskell | CEO & Director | 762,115 | — | ~0.91% | Nov 26, 2025 — bought 10,000 shares at $5.14 |
| James O. Donnally | Director | 22,305 | 1,526,771 | ~1.84% | Apr 3, 2026 — 7,033 share comp. grant at $3.91 |
| Gregory D. Wasson | Director (via WE-INN LLC) | 4,682,970 | Indirect | ~5.57% | Dec 2025 — sold ~717K shares ($4.76–$5.11) |
| Daniel J. Hennessy | Director (resigned Apr 29, 2026) | 764,497 | — | ~0.91% | Apr 14, 2026 — sold 2,992 at $5.01 (10b5-1 plan) |
| David Yablunosky | CFO & Director | — | RSUs | — | Feb 26, 2026 — RSU tax withhold (non-discretionary) |
| ALL INSIDERS TOTAL | Officers + Directors | ~10M+ shares | ~30% | Incl. indirect/trust holdings | |
Note: % calculated on ~84M shares outstanding (May 2026). Indirect includes trusts, family entities, revocable trusts. Feb 2026: Board adopted stock ownership guidelines — officers must retain 50–100% of net profit shares from equity awards.
04Insider Transaction History — Oct 2024 to May 2026
All Form 4 Transactions · Source: SEC.gov
| Date | Insider | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Held After | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | Multiple Officers | Officers | FORM 4 | — | — | — | — | Check SEC for detail → RSU/comp likely |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Michael Otworth | Exec. Chairman | GRANT | +154,829 | $0.00 | Milestone | 3,550,087 | Milestone grant per Business Combination Agreement |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Daniel J. Hennessy | Director (resigned Apr 29) | SOLD | -2,992 | $5.01 | $15K | 764,497 | 10b5-1 pre-planned — small size; resigned 2 weeks later |
| Apr 3, 2026 | James O. Donnally | Director | GRANT | +7,033 | $3.91 | Comp. | 22,305 direct | Q1 2026 cash retainer elected as stock — routine comp. |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Otworth / Scott | Officers | TAX WITHHOLD | Non-disc. | $2.80 | — | — | RSU settlement — not an open-market sale; mandated tax withhold |
| Dec 1–3, 2025 | WE-INN LLC (Wasson) | Director-affiliated | SOLD | -717,791 | $4.76–$5.11 | ~$3.5M | 6,572,561 | Diversification/liquidity. Stock at ~$5 — now +33% above those levels |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Michael Otworth | Exec. Chairman | BOUGHT | +12,000 | $5.06 | $60.7K | 3,492,607 | Open-market buy — founder conviction purchase at lows |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Gregory W. Haskell | CEO | BOUGHT | +10,000 | $5.14 | $51.4K | 762,115 | Open-market buy — CEO buying own stock near lows |
| Nov 18–20, 2025 | WE-INN LLC (Wasson) | Director-affiliated | SOLD | -801,758 | $3.30–$3.97 | ~$2.8M | 7,290,352 | Diversification. Stock now +67% above those sale prices |
| Oct 22–24, 2025 | WE-INN LLC (Wasson) | Director-affiliated | SOLD | -893,510 | $3.01–$3.13 | ~$2.7M | 8,339,985 | Diversification. Stock now +121% above those sale prices |
| Oct 2, 2024 | WE-INN LLC (Wasson) | Director/Founder | MERGER | 8,697,656 | N/A | Merger consideration | 8,697,656 | SPAC merger — received 19.5% of company on IPO day |
Key observation: Wasson sold ~2.4M shares at $3.01–$5.11 (Oct–Dec 2025). CEO Haskell and Exec Chairman Otworth both bought at similar prices. Stock since rallied to $6.65 — all sellers gave up returns. Insider buys at lows were the right read.
→ View all Form 4s on SEC.gov
05Options Flow — Unusual Activity Scanner
Flags sweeps with premium >$10K or Vol/OI >3x on $INV
Real-time options flow sources for $INV:
📊 Yahoo Finance — $INV Options Chain · Full chain, real-time during market hours🐳 Unusual Whales — $INV Flow · Flags sweeps, dark pool prints, institutional flow
📈 Barchart — $INV Options · Vol/OI screener, unusual activity
🔥 Market Chameleon — $INV Flow · Institutional sweep detection
⚠ $INV options volume is limited — any sweep >500 contracts or >$10K premium is highly significant for this name. Click scan to attempt live pull via Alpha Vantage.
▲ Bullish Smart Money Signals
· BlackRock added 1.34M shares (+75.7%) Q1 2026 — world's largest asset mgr
· 83 institutional buyers vs 18 sellers last quarter
· Ascent Capital (6.8%) sent board support letter May 2026
· CEO Haskell bought at $5.14 — open market, Nov 2025 lows
· Otworth bought at $5.06 — founder conviction at lows
· 5 new institutional positions opened Q4 2025–Q1 2026
· 83 institutional buyers vs 18 sellers last quarter
· Ascent Capital (6.8%) sent board support letter May 2026
· CEO Haskell bought at $5.14 — open market, Nov 2025 lows
· Otworth bought at $5.06 — founder conviction at lows
· 5 new institutional positions opened Q4 2025–Q1 2026
⚠ Watch — Bearish Signals
· Short interest 10.88% — 9.14M shares short
· Commonwealth Asset Mgmt ~9.9% — activist 13D still active
· WE-INN sold ~2.4M shares Oct–Dec 2025 at $3–$5 range
· Annual Meeting June 17, 2026 — proxy contest risk
· Hennessy sold & resigned Apr 2026 — board change signal
· Commonwealth Asset Mgmt ~9.9% — activist 13D still active
· WE-INN sold ~2.4M shares Oct–Dec 2025 at $3–$5 range
· Annual Meeting June 17, 2026 — proxy contest risk
· Hennessy sold & resigned Apr 2026 — board change signal
📡 Ownership & Flow LogSaved ✓
Build Your Own Model
Adjust any assumption. Outputs update live. Sensitivity table auto-generates.
01Exit Model
Inputs
Accelsius Valuation—
INV Share (stake%)
AeroFlexx + Refinity—
Warrant Proceeds—
Net Debt—
Total INV Value—
Shares Outstanding
Implied Price / Share
Upside vs. Current—
Accelsius % of Total—
02Sensitivity Table — Price/Share by Revenue × Multiple
$INV Intelligence
AI-powered news analysis, catalyst detection, and risk alerts for INV, Accelsius, and the data center cooling sector. Requires Anthropic API key.
📡 Intelligence Source — Alpha Vantage
Connected to Alpha Vantage News & Sentiment API. Pulls real-time financial news, sentiment scores, and ticker-specific stories for $INV, Accelsius, and the data center cooling sector. Rate limit: 25 requests/day on free tier — use scans intentionally.
Custom Intelligence Query
📌 Saved Intelligence Notes
Saved ✓
My Research Hub
All notes auto-saved to your browser. They persist across sessions.
🎯 Position SizingSaved ✓
❓ Open Questions to VerifySaved ✓
📓 Investment Journal — Log entries with datesSaved ✓
🔬 Channel Check LogSaved ✓
📊 Earnings Call NotesSaved ✓
Financial Data & Growth
All figures from SEC 8-K filings. Most recent: Q1 2026 filed May 14, 2026. → ir.innventure.com
Q1 2026 Revenue
$1.44M
▲ +544% YoY
vs $224K Q1 2025
FY2025 Revenue
$2.06M
▲ +72% vs 2024
vs $1.22M FY2024
Q1 2026 G&A
$12.75M
▼ -35% YoY
Cost discipline working
Q1 2026 Cash
$55.4M
vs $60.4M Dec 2025
Mar 31, 2026
Q1 2026 Net Loss
-$20.8M
▼ Excl. impairments
vs -$143M Q1 2025
Shares Outstanding
~84M
▲ vs 67.7M Dec 2025
May 2026 est. (post-SEPA)
▲
Q1 2026 — Commercial Inflection Confirmed: Revenue of $1.44M is up 544% YoY. G&A down 35% YoY. Net loss attributable to INV stockholders of $20.8M — the cleanest quarterly P&L since listing, with no goodwill impairment charges. Operating companies advancing independent capital formation.
⚡
Key Trajectory: Q1 2026 revenue ($1.44M) already exceeds H1 2025 total ($700K). FY2025 revenue of $2.06M vs $1.22M in 2024 (+72%). Accelsius driving growth — Q1 2026 bookings $50M+. G&A declining as platform matures and subs self-fund.
⚠
Cash Watch: Q1 2026 operating cash burn was -$34M. Cash at March 31, 2026: $55.4M (down from $60.4M at YE2025). Financed $37.2M in Q1. At current burn rate, runway is ~2 quarters without additional financing. CF+ at Accelsius is the critical catalyst.
Quarterly Revenue ($K) — All Reports (Q1 2024 → Q1 2026)
G&A Expense Trend ($M) — Cost Discipline
Earnings Timeline — All Quarters (SEC Sourced)✓ Verified from 8-K filings
PeriodRevenueNet Loss (INV)Key MilestoneFiled
Q1 2024$447KPredecessorFirst commercial deliveries — Accelsius & AeroFlexxPredecessor
Q2 2024$223KPredecessorEarly commercial activityPredecessor
Q3 2024$375KPredecessorSPAC merger closed Oct 2024; public listing8-K
Q4 2024$456K-$40.3M op. loss Refinity launched; first full Successor quarter8-K Mar 2025
Q1 2025$224K-$143M**Includes $233M goodwill impairment charge (non-cash)8-K May 2025
Q2 2025$476K~-$20MDeployments: Global Switch, Compucenter, Equinix8-K Aug 2025
Q3 2025~$900K~-$19MJCI strategic investment; MR250 launch; $1B+ pipeline8-K Nov 2025
Q4 2025~$456K~-$17MG&A -61% vs Q4 2024; commercial inflection announced8-K Mar 2026
FY2025$2.06M-$293M**Includes $347M goodwill impairment · Excl: -$78.8M Adj. EBITDA · Cash YE: $60.4MAnnual 8-K
Q1 2026 ✓$1,443K-$20.8M+544% YoY · G&A -35% · Cash $55.4M · No impairments · EPS -$0.278-K May 2026
Revenue — All Quarters ($K)Source: SEC 8-K · Q4 2024–Q1 2026 are Successor period
| Period | Q1 2024* | Q2 2024* | Q3 2024* | Q4 2024 | FY2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025E | FY2025 | Q1 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $447K | $223K | $375K | $456K | $1,220K | $224K | $476K | ~$900K | ~$456K | $2,056K | $1,443K |
| YoY Growth | — | — | — | — | Baseline | -50% | +113% | ~+140% | — | +69% | +544% |
* Predecessor period (pre-SPAC). Not directly comparable to Successor periods.
Full P&L — Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025 ($K)Source: SEC 8-K May 14, 2026
| Line Item ($K) | Q1 2026 | Q1 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1,443 | $224 | +$1,219 (+544%) |
| Cost of Sales | ($5,253) | ($184) | +$5,069 |
| General & Administrative | ($12,750) | ($19,676) | -$6,926 (-35% ✓) |
| Sales & Marketing | ($2,897) | ($2,096) | +$801 |
| R&D | ($7,840) | ($6,253) | +$1,587 |
| Goodwill Impairment | $0 | ($233,213) | $0 — No impairment ✓ |
| Loss from Operations | ($27,297) | ($261,198) | +$233,901 (excl. impairment) |
| Change in FV of Liabilities | $63 | $16,429 | -$16,366 |
| Interest Expense | ($989) | ($1,538) | -$549 |
| Net Loss (INV Stockholders) | ($20,805) | ($142,997) | Clean -$20.8M (no impairments) |
| EPS (Basic/Diluted) | ($0.27) | ($3.10) | Significant improvement |
| Wtd Avg Shares | 77.8M | 46.3M | +31.5M (dilution) |
FY2025 Full Year P&L ($K)Source: 8-K March 30, 2026
| Line Item ($K) | FY2025 | Successor Q4 2024 | Predecessor Jan–Oct 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2,056 | $456 | $764 |
| Cost of Sales | ($18,830) | ($3,752) | ($777) |
| G&A | ($66,710) | ($29,652) | ($26,608) |
| Sales & Marketing | ($9,633) | ($2,009) | ($4,178) |
| R&D | ($25,025) | ($5,340) | ($5,978) |
| Goodwill Impairment | ($346,557) | $— | $— |
| Total OpEx | ($466,755) | ($40,753) | ($37,541) |
| Adj. EBITDA (excl. impairment) | ~($78.8M) | ~($40M) | ~($37M) |
Revenue Trend & G&A Compression ($K)
Total Assets (Q1 2026)
$591.5M
vs $599.2M Dec 2025
Cash (Mar 31, 2026)
$55.4M
vs $60.4M Dec 2025
+$37.2M equity raise in Q1
Total Liabilities (Q1 2026)
$93.3M
▼ vs $115.5M Dec 2025
Improving
Shares Outstanding
80.1M
vs 67.7M Dec 2025
+12.4M shares in Q1
Balance Sheet — Q1 2026 vs Dec 2025 vs Dec 2024 ($K)Source: 10-Q May 2026 & 8-K Mar 2026
| Line Item ($K) | Mar 31, 2026 | Dec 31, 2025 | Dec 31, 2024 | Q1 Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $55,367 | $60,449 | $11,119 | -$5,082 |
| Restricted Cash | $5,000 | $5,000 | $— | Flat |
| Accounts Receivable | $840 | $1,094 | $283 | -$254 |
| Due from Related Parties | $14,917 | $11,840 | $4,536 | +$3,077 |
| Inventories | $1,562 | $1,604 | $5,178 | -$42 (flat) |
| Total Current Assets | $81,824 | $83,154 | $24,286 | -$1,330 |
| Goodwill | $323,463 | $323,463 | $667,936 | Flat (impaired FY2025) |
| Intangible Assets | $155,133 | $160,537 | $182,153 | -$5,404 (amort.) |
| Total Assets | $591,483 | $599,187 | $905,289 | -$7,704 |
| Notes Payable (current) | $7,440 | $12,846 | $625 | -$5,406 ✓ |
| Term Convertible Note (curr.) | $7,956 | $7,890 | $— | +$66 |
| Warrant Liability | $27,815 | $27,458 | $34,023 | +$357 |
| Accrued Employee Benefits | $4,480 | $11,343 | $9,273 | -$6,863 ✓ |
| Total Current Liabilities | $59,847 | $76,276 | $69,347 | -$16,429 ✓ |
| Total Liabilities | $93,334 | $115,511 | $138,996 | -$22,177 ✓ |
| Accumulated Deficit | ($392,408) | ($371,603) | ($78,262) | -$20,805 |
| Total Stockholders' Equity | $498,149 | $483,676 | $766,293 | +$14,473 |
▲
Balance Sheet Improving: Total liabilities fell from $115.5M → $93.3M in Q1 2026. Current liabilities down $16.4M. Cash at $55.4M with a clean $37.2M equity raise executed in Q1. Goodwill stable at $323.5M (fully impaired in FY2025, no further risk).
Cash vs Liabilities Position
Cash (Mar 2026)$55.4M
Current Liabilities (Mar 2026)$59.8M
Total Liabilities (Mar 2026)$93.3M
Goodwill + Intangibles as % of assets81%
Accelsius — Q1 2026
Latest Bookings
$50M+
Q1 2026 · $200M+ annualized
INV stake: 42.0%
Q1 2026 revenue: Largest contributor
FY2025 revenue: $1.6M (+433% YoY)
Q3 2025 pipeline: $1B+
Deployments: Global Switch · Compucenter · Equinix
JCI investment: Secured Q3 2025
CF+ target: Q4 2026
Q1 2026 revenue: Largest contributor
FY2025 revenue: $1.6M (+433% YoY)
Q3 2025 pipeline: $1B+
Deployments: Global Switch · Compucenter · Equinix
JCI investment: Secured Q3 2025
CF+ target: Q4 2026
AeroFlexx — Q1 2026
Status
Anchor Adoption
Entering anchor-customer phase
INV stake: 37.1%
FY2025: 5 consecutive revenue quarters
APR recyclability: Critical Guidance Recognition
Q4 2025: G&A -61% contribution
Status: Anchor-customer adoption phase
Geography: US + Europe
Capital raise: Independent raise advancing
FY2025: 5 consecutive revenue quarters
APR recyclability: Critical Guidance Recognition
Q4 2025: G&A -61% contribution
Status: Anchor-customer adoption phase
Geography: US + Europe
Capital raise: Independent raise advancing
Refinity — Q1 2026
Status
Tech Validated
Unprecedented speed per CEO
INV stake: 68.4%
Launched: Dec 2024
Partner: The Dow Chemical Co.
Source: VTT Finland
Status: Technology validated · Site selected
EPC: Plant design partner engaged
Capital raise: Independent raise advancing
Launched: Dec 2024
Partner: The Dow Chemical Co.
Source: VTT Finland
Status: Technology validated · Site selected
EPC: Plant design partner engaged
Capital raise: Independent raise advancing
Accelsius — Full Milestone Timeline
| Quarter | Milestone | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | First commercial product deliveries | Proof of commercial viability |
| Q2 2025 | Deployments: Global Switch, Compucenter, Equinix | Enterprise data center penetration |
| Q3 2025 | JCI strategic investment secured; NeuCool MR250 launched | Fortune 500 validation + product line expansion |
| Q3 2025 | NVIDIA GTC: 4,500W per GPU socket demonstrated | Industry-leading thermal performance proven |
| Q3 2025 | Sales pipeline exceeds $1 billion | 10x the FY2027 revenue target |
| Q4 2025 | G&A -61% YoY; commercial inflection announced | Platform cost structure improving rapidly |
| Q1 2026 ✓ | $50M+ in bookings; revenue $1.44M total (+544%) | Inflection confirmed — bookings converting |
| Q4 2026E | Cash flow positive target | Primary re-rating catalyst |
| FY2027E | $300M+ revenue target (company guidance) | Acquisition valuation window opens |
📋
Projection Basis (Updated May 2026): All projections based on company guidance only — Q1 2026 $50M+ bookings, $1B+ pipeline, management guidance for CF+ Q4 2026, analyst price targets $13–$16. Revenue projections are scenarios, not guarantees. Analyst consensus is based on 3 covering analysts.
Revenue Trajectory ($K) — Actuals + Scenarios
Liquid Cooling Market Size ($B) — 2024–2034
Revenue Ramp — Bear / Base / Bull ($M)
| Period | Actual / Source | Bear | Base | Bull | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | $2.1M ✓ SEC | $2.1M | $2.1M | $2.1M | Confirmed actual |
| Q1 2026 ✓ | $1.44M ✓ SEC | — | — | — | +544% YoY — confirmed |
| FY2026 | Company guidance | $30–50M | $70–100M | $100–130M | Bookings converting · Back-weighted H2 |
| FY2027 | Company guidance | $100–150M | $250–300M | $300–400M+ | Full JCI/Legrand channel + DarkNx |
| Run Rate EOY 2027 | Implied guidance | $150M | $400M | $500M+ | Acquisition / exit valuation basis |
Analyst Coverage
| Metric | Low | Consensus | High | Current Price | Upside to Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price Target (3 analysts) | $13.00 | ~$14.50 | $16.00 | $6.65 (Fri close) | +118% |
Q1 2026 Op. Cash Burn
-$34M
Incl. working capital build
Q1 2026 Equity Raised
+$37.2M
Offset burn
Net: -$5.1M
Cash (Mar 31, 2026)
$55.4M
vs $60.4M Dec 2025
2026 Parent Burn (Target)
$20–25M
▼ -70% vs 2025
As subs self-fund
Cash Position — All Quarters ($M)
Q1 2026 Cash Flow Statement ($K)Source: 10-Q May 2026
| Activity | Q1 2026 | Q1 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Net Cash from Operations | ($34,031) | ($14,696) |
| Net Cash from Investing | ($846) | ($3,254) |
| Net Cash from Financing | $29,795 | $8,206 |
| → Proceeds from Equity Issuance | $37,207 | $3,675 |
| → Debt Repayments | ($7,412) | ($300) |
| Net Change in Cash | ($5,082) | ($9,744) |
| Cash Beginning of Period | $65,449 | $11,119 |
| Cash End of Period | $60,367 | $1,375 |
Dilution Instruments — Updated (May 2026)
| Instrument | Shares / Status | Exercise Price | Cash to INV | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding (~May 2026) | ~84,040,000 | N/A | N/A | Baseline |
| Series B Preferred (35,792 shares) | Mostly converted | $5.00–$12.50 | $0 | LOW — nearly cleared |
| Series C Preferred (159,270 shares) | Active | $5.00–$12.50 | $0 | MED — non-cash dilution |
| Warrant Liability | $27.8M fair value | Various | TBD | MED |
| SEPA — Yorkville | ~$66M remaining | Market -5% | ~$66M | HIGH — dilutive at-market |
| INV SPAC Warrants | 18.4M @ $11.50 | $11.50 | $211M ✓ | POSITIVE if stock reaches $11.50 |
⚠
Burn Rate Risk: Q1 2026 operating burn was $34M — elevated by working capital investment as Accelsius scales. At $20–25M parent-level burn target for 2026 and $55M cash, runway extends into late 2026/early 2027. CF+ at Accelsius is essential.
▲
Q1 2026 Equity Raise: $37.2M raised in Q1 2026 demonstrates ongoing market access. Series B preferred nearly fully converted (35,792 shares remaining vs 1.1M a year ago). Balance sheet cleaning up.